Report Suggests Another Strong Year in Real Estate
May 26, 2013
28-Year Market Analysis of Telluride Real Estate Published
TELLURIDE – A new 28-year market analysis, recently published by Telluride Consulting, offers a detailed review of the Telluride region’s cyclical real estate history and offers a positive outlook for 2013.
Statistics compiled in the report suggest a positive real estate trend will continue after a strong 2012.
For the first time since the real estate market took a plunge in 2008, in the region encompassing Telluride, Mountain Village and San Miguel County, 2012 delivered positive news in both the number of sales and the dollar volume of those sales. According to Telluride Consulting’s Judi Kiernan, there was a 16 percent increase in the number of sales in 2012 and a 47 percent increase in the dollar volume of sales over the 2011 numbers.
For the past five years, the compound annual growth rate for the number of sales has increased 7 percent while the total dollar volume for those sales shows an annual growth rate of 2 percent. And despite a slow January, first quarter statistics indicate 2013 will be another positive year in both the number of sales and dollar volume of those sales. So far, 2013 sales and dollar volumes are close to first quarter statistics posted in 2012.
“Regional real estate activity, various economic indicators, as well as demographic trends, all strongly suggest a resurgence of strength in the Telluride market, despite the slow recovery of the national economy,” Kiernan states in the 71-page market analysis. “Certainly, areas within the region will continue to experience cycles, including declines and plateaus. However, based on data gathered over the past 28 years, combined with the promising signs of increased activity in 2012-2013, it appears that the Town of Telluride, Mountain Village and the remainder of San Miguel County can look forward to a renewal of strong real estate sales and healthy appreciation.”
Because the fourth quarter of 2012 ended on such a high note, broker George Harvey of the Harvey Team said he isn’t surprised that 2013 had a slow start in January. He’s encouraged, though, for the rest of the year as Telluride’s “feeder markets” around the country are booming, and those will eventually have a positive impact on Telluride and Mountain Village.
“I can tell you other resort markets in Colorado have been up and a little down this year, but that is coming off a very big end to last year,” Harvey said. “I will tell you that I am very upbeat for the rest of the year. Denver is booming. They have an inventory shortage and so do markets like Boulder and Fort Collins. Our feeder markets in Texas, including Houston and Dallas, are all booming. When our feeder clients are doing well, it usually means they feel better about spending money in resort markets.
“I actually think we are going to have a booming summer and a booming rest of the year,” Harvey added.
Telluride Sotheby’s International Realty broker Michael Ward said he’s had his best quarter ever in Telluride as many historic properties are starting to sell within the Town of Telluride, and the inventory of undeveloped land and high-end homes are being bought up.
“Right now, I think the Telluride market has been on fire,” Ward said.
Mountain Village properties, he said, are starting to move once again as well, and prices on some of the units are starting to rise, too. Generally, Ward said, when real estate in Telluride is booming, Mountain Village can be flat. When Mountain Village is booming, Telluride is generally flat. With Telluride sales booming right now, Ward said he expects Mountain Village’s turn will come soon.
“They kind of go opposite of each other,” he said. “Right now, what has happened is a lot of properties in Telluride have been bought up and I think we will see a shift in Mountain Village. I think the real estate market has been good for the past three or four quarters and it will continue.”
Ward added that he’s also encouraged by the notion that some of the large condo projects in Mountain Village that have sat untouched over the past few years are seeing life again and will be online soon.
Telluride Real Estate Brokers’ Dirk de Pagter agrees that new development is an encouraging sign.
“There are a lot of development parcels going under contract,” de Pagter said. “If developers are coming to the table, that means the market has significantly turned. They are speculating on bringing a project online in two to four years from now, with higher pricing. This is a very positive and strong sign and in the not too distant future this market is going to turn into a sellers market again.”
“There are lot of ways to look at any kind of property, and this report gives a whole bunch of ways to look at the market,” Kiernan said.
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