Existing-Home Sales Rose in January, Marking Three Gains In The Past Four Months

From Realtor.com:

Washington, DC, February 22, 2012

Existing-home sales rose in January, marking three gains in the past four months, while inventories continued to improve, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales¹, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.38 million-unit pace in December and are 0.7 percent above a spike to 4.54 million in January 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said strong gains in contract activity in recent months show buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. “The uptrend in home sales is in line with all of the underlying fundamentals – pent-up household formation, record-low mortgage interest rates, bargain home prices, sustained job creation and rising rents.”

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.4 percent to 2.31 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.1-month supply² at the current sales pace, down from a 6.4-month supply in December.

“The broad inventory condition can be described as moving into a rough balance, not favoring buyers or sellers,” Yun said. “Foreclosure sales are moving swiftly with ready home buyers and investors competing in nearly all markets. A government proposal to turn bank-owned properties into rentals on a large scale does not appear to be needed at this time.”

Total unsold listed inventory has trended down from a record 4.04 million in July 2007, and is 20.6 percent below a year ago.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said buying power is enticing more potential home buyers. “Word has been spreading about the record high housing affordability conditions and our members are reporting an increase in foot traffic compared with a year ago,” he said. “With other favorable market factors, these are hopeful indicators leading into the spring home-buying season. We’re cautiously optimistic that an uptrend will continue this year.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was a record low 3.92 percent in January, down from 3.96 percent in December; the rate was 4.76 percent in January 2011; recordkeeping began in 1971.

The national median existing-home price³ for all housing types was $154,700 in January, down 2.0 percent from January 2011. Distressed homes⁴ – foreclosures and short sales which sell at deep discounts – accounted for 35 percent of January sales (22 percent were foreclosures and 13 percent were short sales), up from 32 percent in December; they were 37 percent in January 2011.

“Home buyers over the past three years have had some of the lowest default rates in history,” Yun said. “Entering the market at a low point and buying at discounted prices have greatly helped in that success.”
All-cash sales were unchanged at 31 percent in January; they were 32 percent in January 2011. Investors account for the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 23 percent of homes in January, up from 21 percent in December; they were 23 percent in January 2011. First-time buyers rose to 33 percent of transactions in January from 31 percent in December; they were 29 percent in January 2011.

Forty-seven percent of NAR members report that contracts settled on time in January; 21 percent had delays and 33 percent experienced contract failures. Contract cancellations are unchanged from December but were only 9 percent in January 2011; they are caused largely by declined mortgage applications and failures in loan underwriting from appraisals coming in below the negotiated price.

Single-family home sales rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.05 million in January from 3.90 million in December, and are 2.3 percent above the 3.96 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $154,400 in January, down 2.6 percent from January 2011.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 8.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000 in January from 480,000 in December but are 10.3 percent lower than the 580,000-unit level in January 2011. The median existing condo price was $156,600 in January, up 2.0 percent from a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.4 percent to an annual pace of 600,000 in January and are 7.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $225,700, which is 4.2 percent below January 2011.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 1.0 percent in January to a level of 980,000 and are 3.2 percent higher than January 2011. The median price in the Midwest was $122,000, down 3.9 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 3.5 percent to an annual level of 1.76 million in January but are unchanged from a year ago. The median price in the South was $134,800, which is 0.3 percent below January 2011.

Existing-home sales in the West jumped 8.8 percent to an annual pace of 1.23 million in January but are 3.1 percent below a spike in January 2011. The median price in the West was $187,100, down 1.8 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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NOTE: For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

¹Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from multiple listing services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. A rebenchmarking of home sales is done periodically using other sources to assess the overall home sales trend, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
Also released today are annual data revisions. Each February, NAR Research incorporates a normal review of seasonal activity factors and fine-tunes historic data for the past three years based on the most recent findings. Revisions have been made to monthly seasonally adjusted annual sales rates for 2009 through 2011, as well as the inventory month's supply data; most revisions are minor with little or no impact on previous characterizations of the overall market. There are no revisions to monthly home prices or raw inventory data (beyond normal prior-month revisions).
²Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, condos were measured quarterly while single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions).
³The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.
⁴Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), all-cash transactions, investors, first-time buyers and contract failures are from a monthly survey for the Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.

Town of Telluride Tax Revenues Coming in Strong

From the Telluride Daily Planet, March 8, 2012:
by Katie Klingsporn, Editor

The Town of Telluride’s 2011 sales tax collections were the highest in years — an indication that the recalibrated economy continues its measured resurgence from the recession.

The town’s sales and use tax revenues, a major funding source that comes mostly from retail outlets in town, totaled $4.36 million in 2011 — the highest in at least five years and a 3.5 percent improvement over 2010, according to town numbers.

Sales tax revenues were up during nine out of 12 months of the year, with a notable upward swing during the last four months.

December revenues of $536,987 were the highest for that month in four years, and were 9.4 percent above the same month in 2010. November revenues were up 3.5 percent, October’s increased 13.9 percent and September’s rose 16.8 percent. August saw a decline, but it came a year after the Phish concerts boosted that month’s activity significantly.

“We ended up with a fairly positive tax revenue picture,” said Town Manager Greg Clifton. “We had a very strong fall shoulder season and a strong December. That really was the end to a year that has been consistently in the positive.”

It marks the second year of steady tax revenue collection since the recession hit, which caused Telluride’s revenues to plummet in 2008 and 2009 and forced the town to axe its budget, freeze spending and lay off employees.

“We had back to back years [2010 and 2011] of decent revenues that surpassed budget estimates,” Clifton said. “That’s good news. It means we’re rolling right along. I think it’s a good indicator of how our local economy is doing.”

Real estate transfer tax revenues, which provide another major revenue stream for the town, came in slightly less in 2011 than 2010. The year total was $2.8 million, down from $3.1 million in 2010.

Again, December numbers showed a year-over increase — coming in at $192,871, a 21 percent increase over the same month in 2010. Other notable months for RETT collections were June, with $322,650 and February, with $429,110. But showings weren’t as strong as sales tax, and several months saw RETT numbers falling from the year before.

Clifton said that while RETT revenues didn’t meet the town’s projections, they were close.

“We felt good about where we ended up,” Clifton said.

Clifton attributed the strong year-end sales tax revenues to a regional effort to extend Telluride’s fall shoulder season. That led into a strong holiday season, he said.

Wendy Basham and Todd Tice, co-owners of Telluride Trappings & Toggery, said their numbers have held up this season compared to last year.

“We haven’t seen a huge increase, but last year was a really good year for us,” Basham said. “There’s definitely been an uptick over the last two years. Things have just slowly gotten a lot better.”

Tice, too, said their numbers are solid. Recent snowfall has helped with the momentum of the season, he said.

Town Council Member Chris Myers said Telluride’s recent effort to extend the gondola season should help the fall off-season grown economically.

“We need to make sure we’re having sound policies that support a healthy business environment and healthy real estate economy as well,” Myers said.

Telluride Association of Realtors Releases Telluride Real Estate Update

Text-only:

Telluride Market Holds Steady

Market Perseveres Through Challenging Economic Times

According to data compiled by the Telluride Association of Realtors*, year-end real estate dollar volume totals in the Telluride region (including San Miguel County and other neighboring counties) tallied at $252 million. These figures are consistent with 2011’s overall market performance, which rounded out 31% lower than the $364 million in 2010. Sales numbers, however, were 15% higher in 2011 with 403 total transactions compared to 351 in 2010.

AN UNPREDICTABLE 2011:  The global real estate market and overall economy remains greatly impacted from its massive thwarting in 2008. Furthermore, the 2011 calendar was marked by tremendous world events, including the devastating earthquake in Japan, extreme political change in the Middle East, and a financial fragility across much of Europe. Such factors, and others, contributed to the vastly unpredictable and volatile activity in the stock market that enveloped much of 2011, thus exacerbating existing pressures in the homebuying realm.  According to a January 3, 2012 Wall Street Journal article titled, World’s Woes Leaving Lasting Scars, “Investors go into 2012 hunkered down, frustrated and skeptical. This dour demeanor comes after a year where many investors learned they had underestimated just how volatile and unpredictable life would be as the world’s major developed economies contend with a mountain of debt.”  The article continued, “If there is a common theme among analysts’ forecasts for stocks, commodities and currencies, it is to brace for more of the kind of wild swings that were the hallmark of 2011. ‘We have to work our way through a lot of volatility, a lot of uncertainty,’ says Derek Young, head of the global asset-allocation division at Fidelity Investments.”

The Telluride real estate market, like numerous others across the country, therefore witnessed the repercussions of a still tender world economy. Furthermore, experts noted that middle-to lower-end markets were experiencing healthier activity, while higher end resort markets remained slow. According to an article published by the Texas Association of Realtors on February 1, 2012, “Consistency and stability were the key characteristics of the [Austin] Texas real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2011,” and in an article published by the National Association of Realtors on February 9, 2010, LawrenceYun, NAR chief economist, said that figures reflect greater home sales activity at lower pricepoints. “Sales have risen strongly in lower price ranges from oneyear ago, while sales at the upper end remain sluggish,” he said.“More importantly, we’re seeing a consistent trend of declining inventory, which means supply and demand conditions are becoming more balanced in more areas, which will help stabilize homeprices.” 

As for the status locally, TAR President Jill Masters said, “We are now seeing a decline in foreclosure filings and sales, which may be a positive sign that sellers are able to hold onto their properties. There is a significant amount of equity in Telluride real estate.  We need to see a rise in consumer confidence and flexible sellers.”

THE YEAR IN QUARTERS:  The third quarter of 2011 was the Telluride market’s strongest quarter of the year with $68 million in total dollar volume. The first quarter trailed closely behind with $66 million in total dollar volume and the second quarter was the weakest all year with $58 million in total dollar volume. As for the fourth quarter, it totaled $61 million in total dollar volume. While fourth quarter figures weren’t the strongest in 2011, they were 20% higher than those from 2010 ($61 million compared to $51 million). Each fourth quarter month was also higher than its correlating month in 2010.Finishing the year on a higher note in 2011 than in 2010 is certainly reassuring,yet it would still be premature to speculate as to whether the 2011 fourth quarter numbers are any indication as to what lies ahead. “Although there are some significant sales pending, it is still too early to tell what the first quarter of 2012 will look like,” said Masters.

NOTABLE 2011 TRANSACTIONS:  Even though many luxury markets across the country are still somewhat flat, Telluride’s market was doused with several impressive sales in 2011, indicating that higher end properties are still moving.
In December, a $3 million land parcel sold in Mountain Village, as did a $2.9 million home in Telluride, as well as a $1.4 million and $1.7 million condo in Mountain Village.
November was highlighted by a $3.4 million home sale in Telluride, a $4.75 home sale in Mountain Village, and a $2.9 million condo sale in Mountain Village.
October boasted a $3 million condo sale in Telluride, $3.9 million land sale in Montrose, a $2.1 million home sale in Elk Run and $3.2 million home sale in Telluride.
Other significant transactions in 2011 included a $5.5 million home sale in Telluride in September, a $2.7 million condo sale in Telluride in September, three $2+ million home sales in August, two $2.5+ million home sales in June and a $5.2 million home sale in May.
Sales numbers were also higher in 2011, a possible sign that there are “good deals” to be found in the region, particularly with regard to certain (though lessening) foreclosure and short sale properties. As previously mentioned, the 2011 sales numbers totaled 403 for the year, compared to 351 for 2010 (a 15%increase), but 2011 also boasted more activity than 2009 and 2008 where transactions numbers totaled 281 and 283, respectively, for those years.

ACTIVITY AND AVERAGE PRICES BY PROPERTY TYPE:  As far as activity by property type, single-family homes were strongest in terms of dollar volume in 2011 with $123 million total.  Condos totaled $89 million in dollar volume and land sales were at $32 million. As for sales numbers, condos were highest with 132 transactions, single-family residential homes were next with 129 transactions and land sales totaled 74. Although homes sales were much higher in 2011 ($231 million**), both condominium sales and land sales were lower in 2010 than in 2011 ($84 million and $28 million, respectively). 
Average prices for the three main property types at the close of 2011 were $953,000 for single-family homes, $674,000 for condos and $432,000 for land. These figures are lower than those from 2010 ($1.5 million for single-family homes***, $913,000 for condos and $491,000 for land) but are rather similar to those from 2004 and 2005 when averages were $955,000 for homes, $631,000 for condos and $507,000 for land in 2004, and $833,000 for homes, $791,000 for condos and $660,000 for land in 2005. 
So as the Telluride market, like other markets, perseveres and slowly regains strength, is it returning to a less inflated “norm?”  According to Aspen broker Tim Estin, who compiles the Estin Report, “In general, market prices have reset to a post-crisis level, off on average 25-40%, and in some individual cases more, from the 2008 market peak. But much depends on the property, unique circumstances and seller motivation. Prices remain under pressure, at least incrementally, even assuming they have been readjusted to the‘new norm.’ It still remains unclear the extent to which we have in fact reached a bottoming of prices. The big question everyone asks is … ‘are we still falling or are we scraping along a bottom?’” 
In the Telluride region, TAR President-Elect, Stewart Seeligson, commented on the market’s activity. “In our area, different segments are recovering at different paces. For example, the Mountain Village home segment seems to be firming along with theTelluride luxury home and luxury condo segments. The Mountain Village condo segment and the vacant land segments appear to require more time to recover. But, overall, the data suggests that the worst impacts of the recession are behind us.”

*Data compiled by TAR is deemed accurate, but not guaranteed.
**The $231 million total for single-family residential home sales in 2010 included a $47.5 million home sale in April 2010; without that sale, the 2010 total is $184 million.
***The $1.5 million average price for single-family residential homes in 2010 was calculated after removing a $47.5 million sale in April. Including this sale drastically skewed the results to $1.9 million.

© KIM HILLEY

Telluride Climbing Some Culinary Heights, Too

From The Boston Globe:

February 26, 2012 | By Elizabeth Mehren

TELLURIDE, Colo. - With their vast slopeside mess halls famous for tepid chili and slender patties masquerading as hamburgers, Americans, it is said, eat to ski.

By contrast, Europeans ski to eat. This means leisurely midafternoon meals marked by steaming cassoulet and platters of handmade pasta. It means exotic salads where tart, tangy dressings come not from stainless steel pumps but from a chef’s imagination. It means soups that swim in your memory as you reluctantly make your way down the hill again: lush fresh mushroom, deep tomato bisque laced with Gorgonzola, gumbo heavy with crawfish, chicken, and chorizo.

It means eye-popping views of mountains so high they dance with heaven. It means cozy tables where adults can conduct actual conversations, not for one snow-filled moment to be confused with giant, cafeteria-style tables where at least one family of eight seems to be in perpetual meltdown.

Thus it was that my husband and I found ourselves lunching at North America’s version of the top of the world. Hugging the hillside here at 11,966 feet, Alpino Vino is the highest-elevation restaurant in North America. It is also a key element in the Telluride Ski Resort’s plan to convert American eater-skiers into European skier-eaters by sprinkling the sprawling mountain with small, high-end dining facilities. As of this season, three ski-in, ski-out restaurants offer bistro-like settings, distinct menus, and comparatively steep pricetags. A fourth spot, Gorrono Ranch, may be larger and more family-oriented, but how many other US ski barns serve barbecued alligator ribs?

Did I mention the waitstaff in dirndls and Tyrolean trousers? Piercing the sky on the horizon directly behind them is Mount Wilson, at 14,000 feet, the highest peak in the San Miguel range. Somehow, in the shadow of summits that rival the Alps, the servers manage not to look like refugees from “The Sound of Music.’’ Instead, they appear almost indigenous.

And that was before we spied the wine list. My husband and I are old school, convinced that we need whatever muscles and brain cells we have left to stay upright on skis. We have a strict policy of no drinking while downhill. But a hostess in a periwinkle dirndl was describing the by-the-glass offerings. Once, just this once, we shared a nod that said, “Brunello di Montalcino, what a good idea.’’

While many Western ski resorts have grown progressively more over-the-top as they jockey for luxury-class clients, Telluride has straddled the line between funky and fancy. The glitzy mid-mountain “village’’ may have all the faux-Alpine allure (or lack thereof) of every other we’re-snazzier-than-you-are Western ski destination, but the 19th-century mining town at the mountain’s base has a charm so rugged you expect a grizzled silver prospector to burst from one of the numerous saloons, boasting of his latest bonanza.

Along with tough preservation policies enforced by a committed year-round population of just under 2,500, Telluride has kept its Old West flavor in part because the box-canyon community in southwestern Colorado is not easy to reach. A small airport that houses the country’s highest-altitude commercial landing strip provides limited direct service to Telluride. Most visitors fly in and out of Montrose, switching at the airport to a 90-minute shuttle-van ride to Telluride.

Skiers who do not head to the luxe hotels or rental homes at mid-mountain stay in Telluride’s small hotels, guest houses, or renovated miner’s cabins. The town is so compact and walkable that skiers can throw their skis over their shoulders and walk a short block or two to the gondola that carries them up the mountain. It’s an equally short walk to a fine independent bookstore-espresso bar, two well-stocked grocery stores, an outstanding town library, and a yoga-Pilates studio housed in an architectural treasure called the Nugget Building. Telluride boasts enough top-flight restaurants to make it possible to eat well at a different place every night in a one-week vacation. Again, all are reachable on foot, making a rental car superfluous.

One benefit of the transportation challenge is that compared with many other Western ski spots, Telluride is stunningly uncrowded. Except on fresh powder days, Telluride skiers joke that they get cranky when they have to share a lift.

But resort officials wanted a distinction beyond this balance of low-key and high-style. Targeting the foodie population that can also afford $106 daily lift tickets, they decided to seduce skiers with fantastic food, right on the mountain, without crowds or chaos.

With tableside service and indoor-outdoor seating for about 65 people, Alpino Vino opened in 2009, setting the tone for intimate meals of a sort seldom seen on US mountaintops. Although the $16 bowl is less than generous, the Gorgonzola-tomato bisque I ordered makes conventional tomato soup shrivel in shame. My husband chose a grilled vegetable panzanella, at $18, stuffed with buffalo mozzarella, roasted red pepper, marinated artichoke, tomato tapenade, and basil pesto. Add the fabled glass of wine and coffee and we were soon looking north of $75 for a ski lunch.

With the success of Alpino Vino, resort CEO Dave Riley decided last fall to go into high gear. First came a gussied-up menu at a miner’s-style shack called Giuseppe’s (elevation: 11,885 feet). This season, the 24-seat cafe took on a New Orleans theme, serving blackened chicken pasta, muffuletta and gumbo alongside its signature chili and black bean saute. We took our food outside to sit in Adirondack chairs staring squarely at Utah’s LaSal Mountains, at least 75 miles away.

The next phase in the smaller-nicer dining establishment strategy came right around Halloween, when culinary services manager Cathy Schwindt got the idea to turn a storage closet at the top of the Polar Queen lift - about 10,000 feet - into the kitchen for a still-unbuilt French bistro. An uncharacteristically warm winter permitted a speeded-up construction schedule, and Bon Vivant opened on Jan. 1.

Waitstaff at the en plein air spot sport jaunty French caps, peacoats, and sturdy knit mufflers, delivering dishes like bubbling lamb stew and wild mushroom soup topped with puffed pastry to tables decorated with country French tableware and sprigs of fresh lavender. This was another splurge lunch - $75 without alcohol - and though my husband savored the lobster gnocchi that arrived in a Le Creuset dish, all I had was a frisee salad with some chevre thrown in. Still, the French bread was warm and crunchy and beneath the blazing heat lamps and the 39-foot umbrella that wards off the elements, we had no complaints. Schwindt said an enclosed restaurant should follow by next winter.

We, too, will likely follow next winter, returning not just for the mountains, but also for the meals.



If you go...



Where to stay:


New Sheridan Hotel 231 West Colorado Ave. 800-200-1891 www.newsheridan.com With just 26 rooms (all recently renovated), the hotel also boasts a glittering chophouse dining room. Winter rates $179-$249.

Where to eat:


221 South Oak 221 South Oak St. 970-728-9507 221southoak.com Sublime dinners in a refurbished home near the base of the ski gondola. Entrees $27- $45.
La Cocina de Luz 123 East Colorado Ave. 970-728-9355 www.lacocinatelluride.com Mexican cuisine 9-9 seven days a week. Entrees $11- $19.

For more information, please visit http://www.telluriderealestatecorp.com/, email info@telluriderealestatecorp.com or call 970.728.3111.